The 2010 Coordinated Campaign has been an outstanding success, we’ve contacted voters in every corner of the state as our candidates deliver their message of brighter future for Iowa. As of yesterday our identified supporters hold a 25,000 margin in early vote requests as we go into the final week. This success has earned the IDP national attention:
In Iowa, Republicans have returned a higher percentage of their early requests–roughly 7 out of 11–but Democrats have returned more ballots overall–85,000 out of 135,000.
Now, let’s look at some Iowa subroups, courtesy of internal data provided by the Democratic Party. You would expect Republicans designated as “sporadic” voters to be returning their ballots at higher rates than Democrats, regardless of the total number of Republicans registered. But Democrats actually have a slight advantage. Republicans have a small advantage among 2008 first time voters who’ve registered so far–0.6 percent. These voters comprise about 7.2 percent of all Republicans who’ve requested ballots so far. In three states measured by the DNC, regular Democratic midterm voters are returning ballots at a higher rate than Republicans, which is important because Republicans usually return their ballots earlier than Democrats.
At the same time, the early-voting numbers provide evidence that the Democratic ground-level organization in some states is matching or exceeding Republicans’ enthusiasm.
Democrats point to states like Iowa, Ohio and West Virginia, where they have turned out more of their partisans than Republicans so far. And they say they’re focused on getting out voters who might not otherwise come out in an off-year election.
So far more Democrats than Republicans are casting ballots in Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina, Louisiana and Nevada.
Those looking to read the election tea leaves also keep an eye on which party’s voters have submitted the most applications for early ballots.
In Iowa, where former Republican Gov. Terry Branstad is widely expected to unseat Democratic Gov. Chet Culver, the early vote isn’t tracking the polls. Democrats represent 47% of the early vote, and Republicans 38%.
Still, a nonpartisan source agreed that the latest figures on early voting represent an improved picture for Democrats from last week.
“Compared to what first came out, Democrats have to be feeling better with the numbers now,” said Michael McDonald, a government and politics professor at George Mason University. “But a lot can still change.”
Registered Democrats lead early voting turnout in Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina, and West Virginia. And the Atlas Project, a Democratic consulting group, said Friday that in some states, voters are even slightly more Democratic than in 2006, when the party took back Congress.
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